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Al-Tabtabai, H and Diekmann, J E (1992) Judgemental forecasting in construction projects. Construction Management and Economics, 10(01), 19-30.

Finch, E F (1992) Environmental assessment of construction projects. Construction Management and Economics, 10(01), 5-18.

Kapliński, O and Meszek, W (1992) Catastrophic and strategic aspects of building processes balancing. Construction Management and Economics, 10(01), 81-8.

Laufer, A (1992) A micro view of the project planning process. Construction Management and Economics, 10(01), 31-43.

Ranasinghe, M and Russell, A D (1992) Analytical approach for economic risk quantification of large engineering projects: validation. Construction Management and Economics, 10(01), 45-68.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: civil engineering; Monte Carlo simulation; probability; risk quantification; validation
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446199200000005
  • Abstract:

    Validation and the computational efficiency of an analytical alternative to Monte Carlo simulation for quantifying risks in project performance measures such as time, cost, net present value and internal rate of return are explored in this paper. The analytical approach is based on the use of the Pearson family of distributions, a four moment characterization of uncertainty for input and output variables and a modified version of the PNET algorithm for modelling time uncertainty. The approach is applied to a generalized hierarchical description of a project’s economic structure. Results show that the analytical approach can duplicate results of a full-scale Monte Carlo simulation with approximately 0.033 of the computational effort.

Yizhe, T and Youjie, L (1992) Unbalanced bidding on contracts with variation trends in client-provided quantities. Construction Management and Economics, 10(01), 69-80.